Trump’s second term emboldens far-right leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, threatening democratic norms and amplifying authoritarian trends in Latin America. By undermining the Rule of Law and advancing ultra-conservative agendas, this resurgence deepens global challenges to democracy and equality.

Trump’s inauguration last week deserves further examination of what some claim to be the greatest political comeback in recent American history. Trump has won not only the electoral college but also the popular vote. In doing so, he beat Democrat nominee Kamala Harris in all swing states and won both chambers of Congress, giving him considerable powers to advance his agenda. He even outperformed Joe Biden’s 306 electoral votes (by six) and Republican George W. Bush in both terms (by comparison, Barack Obama won 332 in 2008). Trump’s big win narrative is part of his strategy to legitimise sweeping policy changes—as proposed in the Heritage Foundation’s project 2025—and empower other far-right leaders worldwide, including in Latin America.

The US has a history of meddling with political affairs in the region, and increasing authoritarian and anti-democratic trends today are likely to negatively impact America’s “backyard.” During the 1960s, Washington supported counter-communist military coups that had devastating consequences for democratic values, the Rule of Law, and human rights protections in the region. Today, Trump’s push towards ultra-conservative policies will not only reshape the US government but also inspire far-right Latin American counterparts to reestablish their own authoritarian far-right ideals in the region.

A move back towards ultra-conservative policies will likely empower old Latin American elites at the expense of the most vulnerable while consolidating authoritarian views within government. What is striking about Trump’s return is not merely his survival, but also the high levels of popularity he has retained, even after all the indictments, trials, convictions, and the continuous denial of any wrongdoing by rioters during the US Capitol desecration on 6 January 2021. Trump did not shy away during his electoral campaign to recollect the invasion of the US Capitol as “a day of love.”  Vice President Mike Pence, by following the US Constitution and certifying the elections, was deemed a traitor. If America’s democracy is travelling along a thin line, how will this impact countries in the region with troublesome authoritarian legacies? Trump has two key strategic allies in Latin America: Argentinian president Javier Milei and former Brazilian president Jair Messias Bolsonaro. How will Trump’s second term in office reshape how politics is made in Latin America?

Elected in 2023, the Argentine president Javier Milei, known as “el peruca,” is a self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist who seems to be Argentina’s economic miracle maker. In Trump’s first call to the Argentinian president since the election, he told Milei “you are my favorite president.” Milei’s heterodox economic plan reduced the country’s inflation from 25.5 percent in December 2023 to 2.7 percent in November 2024, keeping his high popularity unabated. Although inflation levels have reduced dramatically, Argentina’s poverty challenges continue unaddressed. He is also no stranger to controversy: in the past he supported the legalisation of organ sales in Argentina, and gun liberalisation; and described selling children as just another market commodity. Last year Milei ruffled feathers with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after deeming the Spanish first lady “a corrupt woman.” This led to a diplomatic crisis and the expulsion of the Argentinian ambassador in Madrid in May 2024. Although tensions with Spain settled in August the same year, this incident shows how Milei’s volatility can impact the international stage.

Other matters of international concern include Argentina’s withdrawal from COP29 in Azerbaijan, resistance to gender rights, taxation of the ultra-rich, and digital measures against hate speech. Milei has also threatened to abandon any commitment to the United Nations 2023 Sustainable Development Goals (SDV) that, in his view,  “affects people’s life, and their right to liberty and property.” Milei met with X’s CEO Elon Musk four times in 2024, and has moved closer to Trump’s inner circle, also attending Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.

Former Brazilian president Jair Messias Bolsonaro is another close Trump ally in Latin America. His son Eduardo Bolsonaro, who is a Liberal Party member of the Chamber of Deputies in Brazil, has strong ties with the Trump family and Steve Bannon. In 2019 Eduardo joined Bannon’s far-right global alliance to “boost nationalist agenda” around the world. Although this is an ultra-conservative nationalist global network, it strategises how to advance the interests of the global far-right in each region worldwide. With Bannon anointing him as the representative of the movement in Latin America, Eduardo Bolsonaro has consolidated a long-term strategy with “Bolsonaristas” to expand the far-right alliance throughout Latin America.

Recently Bannon declared that Eduardo was likely to be the next president of Brazil due to his “strength.” However, Eduardo affirmed that his candidate in the next presidential elections would be his father. After Trump’s successful election, Jair Bolsonaro declared he would run for the 2026 Brazilian presidential race. For the time being, Bolsonaro snr and several other politicians are under investigation for the 8 January 2023 Congressional attacks by the Electoral Tribunal (TSE). Brazil’s Congressional riots were remarkably similar to the Capitol riots in the US, and many amid the crowd adopted the “stop the steal” campaign. Bolsonaro snr refused to concede defeat or condemn the riots, and, as a result of the TSE investigation, he lost the right to compete in the next two presidential elections.

Trump’s election success engendered a new faith in Bolsonaro snr (Liberal Party) that a comeback was possible, boldly declaring that “the candidate the people choose is Messias, which is my middle name…people miss me…the most loved former Brazilian president. Recently, Bolsonaro stated in an interview that the Brazilian Congress should approve legislation for the pardon (amnesty) of those implicated in Brazil’s 8 January 2023 riots. He also compared the political situation in the US with Brazil, hoping that those responsible for the Congressional attacks will be released by Brazil’s Judiciary, rather  than through an executive order like in the US. Bolsonaro’s strategy to reject the TSE decision builds on amnesty laws for those responsible for the insurrection against Luis Inacio Lula da Silva’s electoral victory in 2022, compromising the Rule of Law and any degree of accountability.

With Trump back in office, there will be greater US opposition towards the incumbent left-leaning president Lula and his domestic and foreign policies. It will also give oxygen to far-right supporters in Brazil to pressure the government to reform Brazil’s High Court decision to ban X, and push for Bolsonaro’s amnesty, allowing him to contest the next presidential elections. Given that Lula himself had his sentence revoked to be a presidential candidate in 2022, the precedent for reforming court decisions has been set. Bolsonaro will explore this opportunity, likely with great hype.

Although Bolsonaro snr was invited to attend Trump’s inauguration, his passport is still being withheld by the Brazilian Federal police. The former president is currently under investigation due to alleged crimes committed during his administration, including anti-democratic attacks on Brazil’s capital, leading a subversive online organisation in Brazil spreading fake news on issues such as the pandemic and fraud among COVID-19 certifications, and the embezzlement of jewellery given to the Brazilian government as a gift.

In 2020, 50 politicians and personalities signed the Madrid Charter in support of a global articulation of far-right ideas. Led by Santiago Abascal from the far-right Spanish Vox, the Foro of Madrid is an alliance to support the global far-right to counter “socialism” worldwide—similar to the Socialist International, but disseminating far right ideas. The alliance advocates against Judicial decisions, such as the one by Brazil’s High Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes on suspending X operations for spreading misinformation. Members of the Madrid Foro disregard the spread of fake news by digital platforms, claiming Justice Moraes’ decision impinges on “freedom of expression,” which advances the “socialist agenda” in Brazil.

With Trump back in power the articulation of the global far-right will gain significant traction in Latin America. Trump’s agenda and the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 project demonstrates how the far-right will embed extreme conservative policies throughout government—a strategy endorsed by far-right leaders like Milei and Bolsonaro snr. In Latin America, where there are vast inequalities to be addressed, ultra conservative policies will compromise the legal protections of the most vulnerable such as individuals of colour, of diverse sexual identification, and indigenous groups.

By minimising the impact of 6 January in the US, Trump is setting a narrative of disrespect towards democratic institutions and the Rule of Law. Similarly in Brazil, Bolsonaro snr and his followers brush off their contribution to the Brazil capital riots, pushing for amnesty laws. The second Trump administration unleashes greater unpredictability, particularly with respect to democratic and liberal institutions. For Latin America, the far-right populist wave magnifies the cult of personality of charismatic leaders and compromises the Rule of Law, further eroding democracy while making politics murkier and more difficult to predict.

Dr. Flavia Bellieni Zimmermann is a Lecturer in Public Policy in the school of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne and an international political analyst. She is also an Adjunct Research Fellow in the School of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.